Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
作者： Matthias Mengel , Alexander Nauels , Joeri Rogelj , Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-018-02985-8
关键词:
摘要: Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by gas to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect these constraints on global sea-level until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median between 0.7 1.2 m, if net-zero are sustained varying with pathway during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C insufficient hold 2300 1.5 m. find each 5-year delay in near-term peaking CO2 increases year estimates ca. 0.2 m, extreme 95th percentile up 1 m. Our results underline importance mitigation action for long-term risks.
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