Evaluation of statistical models in atmospheric dispersion modelling

摘要: When a gas is released into the atmosphere, there are inevitably random fluctuations in its concentration due to turbulence. Great recent improvements instrumentation have shown how large these are. This has been acknowledged by CEC (the Commission of European Communities), for example that part Environment and Climate Programme (Framework IV) dealing with accidents. Likewise, many governmental commercial organisations now recognise need regulatory models include effects fluctuations. Models been, still being, developed. Such must be stochastic if they realistic; typical output probability given exceeded at point time. Current policy on Model Evaluation does not deal such models, this paper focuses it may amended do so satisfactorily. It is, incidentally, suggested some re-evaluation current might order.