The use of probit expressions in the assessment of acute population impact of toxic releases

摘要: Abstract A substantial source of uncertainty in assessing the consequences toxic gas releases major hazards lies problem specifying human response for acute exposures to substances such as chlorine, ammonia, hydrogen cyanide and methyl isocyanate. suitable framework expressing varying susceptibility populations exposed stressing agents is that probit analysis. While there a paucity data on which base absolute estimates humans, scheme provides can nonetheless be applied relative sense, many other risk assessment tools. The basic concepts analysis are described, some implications explored connection with characteristics open atmosphere differ from exposure used toxicity tests animals. In particular, effects fluctuating intermittent considered, using chlorine isocyanate illustrate implied modification estimate based probits developed steady exposures. described comparing performance different (as numerous published expressions interest). Reference made work finding means improving validation than by direct experiment: reconstruction known has not proved decisive this respect, more immediate methods post accident investigation may assist. Very little information available concerning unsteady discussed here, but what seems provide picture consistent speculations underlying here terms modified expressions. It concluded usefulness efforts should improve scope valid application.