Precursory Analysis of GPS Time Series for Seismic Hazard Assessment

摘要: We discuss the use of fractal analysis geophysical big data as a precursory method for estimation current seismic hazard. begin by analyzing GPS time series land surface displacements recorded in various regions planet exhibiting different degrees activity. show how quantitative measure chaoticity based on modified detrended fluctuation (DFA) can be used to distinguish critical and noncritical regimes evolution Earth’s crust. Having established reference values chaoticity, we then choose California case study region apply DFA over 1200 determining local areas currently exposed higher comprehensively analyze results obtained compare them with those produced conventional risk assessment methods. demonstrate consistency our yet discover that suggested approach allows us quantify two qualitatively mechanisms involved growth hazards. propose hypothesis which relates these known earthquake generation evince collective behavior crust eve an earthquake. In order verify hypothesis, same independent statistical method, canonical coherence (CCA), permits degree synchronized constituents The CCA confirms previously estimates, thus supporting suitable hazard assessment.