Endogenizing the probability of nuclear exit in an optimal power-generation mix model

摘要: Abstract A major accident at a nuclear power reactor can lower public acceptance of this energy source and may result in exit. This paper proposes an optimal power-generation planning model that deals explicitly with the costs involved changing mix due to The introduces probability leading exit future time period as endogenous variable, which is determined depending on amount being generated during preceding period. proposed formulated stochastic programming problem aims minimize expected value overall computed weighted every state, branched according possible each An application quantitatively implies less dependency for higher assumed frequency per unit electrical from nuclear—not only cost direct damage accident, but largely because increased generation subsequent To put it differently, lowering reactor·year brings benefits exceeding conventionally perceived effect reducing accident's damage. Lowering one 106 reactor·years would free electricity supply influence causing exit, if geographical scale were limited one-twentieth entire world.