摘要: Recent advances in observational and theoretical studies of El Nino have shed light on controversies concerning the possible effect global warming this phenomenon over past few decades future. is now understood to be one phase a natural mode oscillation-La Nina complementary phase-that results from unstable interactions between tropical Pacific Ocean atmosphere. Random disturbances maintain neutrally stable mode, whose properties depend background (time-averaged) climate state. Apparent changes could reflect importance random disturbances, but they also consequence decadal variations The possibility that affecting those cannot excluded.