Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

摘要: Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the phenology populations within radius 50 km, they may be sensitive regional indicator climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with models fitted to dates inferred from maximum data. Of four tested, thermal time model gave best fit for Montpellier, France, was most effective at scale, providing reasonable predictions 10 sites in western Mediterranean. This forced replicated future temperature simulations Mediterranean coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 2099 1% per year increase greenhouse gases, modelled advanced rate 6·2 d °C. results indicated that long-term trend might statistically significant as early 2030, but marked spatial variation magnitude, calculated 1990s 2030s advancing 3–23 d. Future monitoring therefore provide an biological warming