Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology

摘要: Abstract In the era of 21st century, development emerging information technology is essence advancement. This kind new technology, however, often requires a great deal amount initial investment for both procedures R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing specified increasing, investors are paying more attention to benefit analysis (CBA). One basic elements CBA technological diffusion pattern demand such technology. Typically, it would be hard presume when product or under development. this case, simulation study necessary. Many studies evaluation have adopted single generation model simulate demand. approach, considers itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace one just invented. real market situation, must consider competition substitution phenomena between old technologies. paper, we show how multigeneration applied accurate Additionally, Monte Carlo performed find influential factors on cybernetic building system (CBS).