Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change
作者： Sam Nicol , Richard A. Fuller , Takuya Iwamura , Iadine Chadès
关键词:
摘要: Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this fear making wrong decisions caused myriad future scenarios presented decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple continually learns best strategy from observations, even as conditions change. demonstrate performance our AM applying it spatial migratory shorebird habitats on East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted be severely impacted sea-level rise. By accounting non-stationary dynamics, solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than current stationary approach. can applied many ecological systems that require efficient strategies
royalsocietypublishing.org
uq.edu.au
core.ac.uk参考文章(52)
Takuya Iwamura, Spatial conservation prioritisation under global threats ,(2011)
Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Thomas F. Stocker, Olivier Boucher, Richard A. Feely, Gregory C. Johnson, David Randall, Qin Dahe, Matthew Collins, Matilde Rusticucci, Simon K. Allen, Yu Xia, Judith Boschung, Gregory Flato, Peter U. Clark, Jan Sedlacek, Peter A. Stott, Francois-Marie Breon, Piers Forster, John Kennedy, Lisa V. Alexander, Michael Schulz, Peter W. Thorne, Peter Lemke, Dahe Qin, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Scott Power, Christopher Sabine, Pierre Friedlingstein, Gabriele Hegerl, John A. Church, Alexander Nauels, Stephen R. Rintoul, Lynne D. Talley, Antony J. Payne, Gerald A. Meehl, Ulrich Cubasch, Dennis L. Hartmann, Josefino C. Comiso, Shang-Ping Xie, Jochem Marotzke, Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, Pauline M. Midgley, Gunnar Myhre, Reto Knutti, Michael Prather, Shilong Piao, Joeri Rogelj, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Jonathan M. Gregory, Albert M.G. Klein Tank, Melinda M.B. Tignor, Igor I. Mokhov, Rowan Sutton, Vladimir Kattsov, Timothy Osborn, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Maisa Rojas, Philippe Ciais, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Donald Wuebbles, Myles R. Allen, Monika Rhein, Viviane Vasconcellos de Menezes, Judith Perlwitz, Arlene M. Fiore, Vincent Bex, Ben Kirtman, Paul J. Hezel, David G. Vaughan, Corinne Le Quere, Nathan Gillett, Georg Kaser, Jan Fuglestvedt, Don Chambers, Seita Emori, Drew Shindell, Eystein Jansen, Thierry Fichefet, Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers ,(2013)
Mark New, Mike Hulme, Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach Integrated Assessment. ,vol. 1, pp. 203- 213 ,(2000) , 10.1023/A:1019144202120
Nicholas J. Murray, Zhijun Ma, Richard A. Fuller, Tidal flats of the Yellow Sea: a review of ecosystem status and anthropogenic threats Austral Ecology. ,vol. 40, pp. 472- 481 ,(2015) , 10.1111/AEC.12211
Robert St-Aubin, Alan Hu, Craig Boutilier, Jesse Hoey, SPUDD: stochastic planning using decision diagrams uncertainty in artificial intelligence. pp. 279- 288 ,(1999)
Robert J. Lempert, Michael E. Schlesinger, Steven C. Bankes, Natalia G. Andronova, The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the Value of Information Climatic Change. ,vol. 45, pp. 129- 161 ,(2000) , 10.1023/A:1005697118423
Tracey J. Regan, Iadine Chadès, Hugh P. Possingham, Optimally managing under imperfect detection: A method for plant invasions Journal of Applied Ecology. ,vol. 48, pp. 76- 85 ,(2011) , 10.1111/J.1365-2664.2010.01915.X
John A. Church, Neil J. White, A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophysical Research Letters. ,vol. 33, ,(2006) , 10.1029/2005GL024826
Nicholas J Murray, Robert S Clemens, Stuart R Phinn, Hugh P Possingham, Richard A Fuller, Tracking the rapid loss of tidal wetlands in the Yellow Sea Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. ,vol. 12, pp. 267- 272 ,(2014) , 10.1890/130260
R. A. Kerr, Time to Adapt to a Warming World, But Where's the Science? Science. ,vol. 334, pp. 1052- 1053 ,(2011) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.334.6059.1052