The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East

摘要: Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, timing violent protests in North Africa Middle East 2011 well earlier riots 2008 coincides with large peaks global food prices. We identify specific price threshold above which become likely. These observations suggest that not only long-standing political failings governments, but also sudden desperate straits vulnerable populations. If prices remain high, there is likely to be persistent increasing disruption. Underlying we find an ongoing trend extrapolate these trends crossing point domain high impacts, even without peaks, 2012-2013. This implies avoiding crises associated requires rapid concerted action.