The Global Food Price Crisis and China-World Rice Market Integration: A Spatial-Temporal Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model

摘要: In this paper, we examine how China, the world’s largest rice producer and consumer, would affect international market if it liberalized its trade in became more fully integrated into global market. The impacts of liberalization are estimated using a spatial-temporal rational expectations model world characterized by four interdependent markets with stochastic production patterns, constant-elasticity demands, expected-profit maximizing private speculative storers, government stockpiling authorities. results show that full entry China will substantially reduce stabilize price, reducing risk faced major importers, particularly price spikes caused restrictive policies implemented exporters.