What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise

摘要: A common feature of model inter-comparison efforts is that the base year numbers for important parameters such as population and GDP can differ substantially across models. This paper explores sources implications this variation in Asian countries models participating Modeling Exercise (AME). Because do not all have a year, each team was required to provide data 2005 comparison purposes. compares information different models, noting degree parameters, including population, GDP, primary energy, electricity, CO2 emissions. It then difference these key base-year information. The analysis confirms values many parameters. additional reasons why might numbers, differences regional definitions, transformation methodologies, are discussed context AME scenarios. Finally, on long-term results.