作者: Tyrone D. Cannon , Kristin Cadenhead , Barbara Cornblatt , Scott W. Woods , Jean Addington
DOI: 10.1001/ARCHGENPSYCHIATRY.2007.3
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摘要: Context Early detection and prospective evaluation of individuals who will develop schizophrenia or other psychotic disorders are critical to efforts isolate mechanisms underlying psychosis onset the testing preventive interventions, but existing risk prediction approaches have achieved only modest predictive accuracy. Objectives To determine conversion evaluate a set algorithms maximizing positive power in clinical high-risk sample. Design, Setting, Participants Longitudinal study with 2½-year follow-up 291 prospectively identified treatment-seeking patients meeting Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes criteria. The were recruited underwent across 8 research centers as part North American Prodrome Study. Main Outcome Measure Time fully form mental illness. Results was 35%, decelerating rate transition during follow-up. Five features assessed at baseline contributed uniquely psychosis: genetic recent deterioration functioning, higher levels unusual thought content, suspicion/paranoia, greater social impairment, history substance abuse. Prediction combining 2 3 these variables resulted dramatic increases (ie, 68%-80%) compared prodromal criteria alone. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that ascertainment is feasible, level accuracy comparable areas medicine. They provide benchmark shape function against which standardized intervention programs can be compared.