Using Structured Expert Judgment to Assess Invasive Species Prevention: Asian Carp and the Mississippi—Great Lakes Hydrologic Connection

摘要: Recently, authors have theorized that invasive species prevention is more cost-effective than control in protecting ecosystem services. However, quantification of the effectiveness rare because experiments at field scales are expensive or infeasible. We therefore used structured expert judgment to quantify efficacy 17 proposed strategies prevent Asian carp invasion Laurentian Great Lakes via hydrologic connection between Mississippi and watersheds. Performance-weighted estimates indicated separation would 99% (95,100; median, 5th 95th percentiles) access, while electric acoustic-bubble-strobe barriers 92% (85,95) (75,95), respectively. For all other strategies, estimated was lower, with greater uncertainty. When potential invasions by taxa considered, increases relative effective primarily for fishes. These results could help guide management many waterways globally.