Spatial impacts of the CAP post-2013 and climate change scenarios on agricultural intensification and environment in Austria

摘要: Abstract We assess impacts of the latest CAP reform and regional climate change scenarios on agricultural land use intensification environment in Austria for period 2025–2040. A spatially explicit integrated assessment based sequentially coupled models quantifies at a 1 km grid resolution order to take into account heterogeneity production environment. The post-2013 will lead shift direct payments from cropland grassland dominated regions as well slight decrease producer surpluses Austria. economic impact depends spatial location precipitation scenario. favorable extensification marginal areas. Regional amplifies with increases crop forage yields, e.g. Alpine regions, declining eastern regions. Environmental indicators deteriorate national level all scenarios. Spatially highly diverging call more targeted policy measures.