Prediction of areas around the Mediterranean at risk of bluetongue by modelling the distribution of its vector using satellite imaging.

摘要: Bluetongue is an infectious disease of ruminants caused by a virus transmitted biting midges, one species which, Culicoides imicola , the major vector in Old World. Following epizootic African horse sickness, related disease, Iberia and Morocco between 1987 1991, C was trapped for two years at 44 sites affected region models were developed predicting abundance these sites. Discriminant analysis applied to identify best model three levels from 40 Fourier-processed remotely sensed variables digital elevation model. The correctly predicted level 41 single most important variable phase annual cycle normalised difference vegetation index. used predict abundances elsewhere around Mediterranean high many areas recently bluetongue, including Balearics, Sardinia, Sicily, eastern Greece, western Turkey, Tunisia northern Algeria. suggests that Spain, island Ibiza, provinces Lazio Puglia Italy, Peloponnese parts Algeria Libya may be risk bluetongue 2001.