Methodological problems and amendments to demonstrate effects of temperature on the epidemiology of malaria. A new perspective on the highland epidemics in Madagascar, 1972–1989

摘要: There is a growing consensus that changes in climate will have major consequences for human health through reduction the availability of food and an increasing frequency natural disasters. However, contribution higher temperatures to vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, remains controversial despite known biological dependence both vector pathogen on climate. Misconceptions inappropriate use variables methods contributed controversy. At present there appears be more support non-climatic explanations account resurgence malaria African highlands, e.g. deterioration control development drug resistance. An attempt made here show dismissing temperature as driving force case premature. Using de-trended time-series incidence Madagascar between 1972 1989 indicated minimum during 2 months at start transmission season can most variability years (r2 = 0.66). These correspond with when human-vector (Anopheles gambiae sensu lato) contact greatest. The relationship El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (r 0.79), ENSO 0.64), suggests might increased epidemic risk post-Nino highlands therefore warrants vigilance extended efforts first half 2003. This review rejection climate-disease associations studies so far published may not used biologically relevant parameters. It highlights importance identifying parameters critical periods order aid forecasting assess potential impact global warming.