Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: The otter as a flagship species

摘要: Abstract Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate threat to European otter, a flagship species freshwater ecosystems, considering how current areas will perform preserving climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach six modelling techniques applied eleven subsets otter occurrences across Europe. performed pseudo-independent and internal evaluation predictions. Future projections distribution were made A2 B2 scenarios 2080 three models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 HCCPR HADCM3. The predicted distributions identify priority species, overlapped existing network protected areas. Our show may profoundly reshuffle otter’s potential Europe, with important differences between two considered. Overall, Europe appear be unevenly covered by areas, efforts being insufficient most cases. For better conservation, should integrated within more general management strategy incorporating projections. Due role plays habitats, our study further highlights sensitivity habitats change.