An anthropologically based model of the impact of asymptomatic cases on the spread of Neisseria gonorrhoeae

摘要: Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) remains a serious burden in many high-sexualactivity, undertreated populations. Using empirical data from 2009 study of GC among pastoralists Kaokoveld, Namibia, we expand the standard gonorrhoea transmission model by using locally derived sexual contact to explore dynamics population with high rates partner exchange and low treatment-seeking behaviour. We use generate ball-park estimates for probabilities other parameter values low-level (i.e. less than approx. 1200 copies/20 m lP CR reaction) asymptomatic infections, which account 74% all infections found Kaokoveld 2009, describe impact asymptomatic, lowlevel on overall prevalence patterns. Our results suggest that are higher previously estimated, untreated take longer clear estimated is partially due larger numbers untreated, infections. These provide new insights into natural history challenge syndromic management programmes eradication endemic gonorrhoea.