Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2.

摘要: Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 (HSV-2) is one of the most common sexually transmitted diseases. Although there still no licensed vaccine for HSV-2, a theoretical investigation potential effects considered important and has recently been conducted by several researchers. compartmental mathematical models were each special case in previous studies, as yet are few global stability results. In this paper, we formulate multi-group SVIRI epidemic model which enables us to consider vaccination, waning immunity, infection relapse. Since number groups arbitrary, our can be applied various structures such risk, sex, age group structures. For model, define basic reproduction ℜ0 prove that if ℜ0≤1, then disease-free equilibrium globally asymptotically stable, whereas ℜ0>1, endemic so. Based on result, estimate HSV-2 applying risk structure using US data from 2001 2014. Through sensitivity analysis, find approximately range 2-3. Moreover, estimated parameters, discuss optimal vaccination strategy eradication HSV-2. discussion strategy, come following conclusions. (1) Improving efficacy more effective than increasing vaccines. (2) transmission female individuals higher male individuals, distributing available vaccines almost equally between concentrating them within population.