Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology

摘要: [1] Holocene climate proxies suggest substantial correlations between tropical meteorology and solar variations, but these have thus far not been explained. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-composition model forced by sustained multi-decadal irradiance increases, we show that greater temperatures alter the hydrologic cycle, enhancing climatological precipitation maxima in tropics while drying subtropical subsidence regions. The shift is enhanced tropopause region ozone captures pattern inferred from paleoclimate records. physical process describe likely affected past civilizations, including Maya, Moche, Ancestral Puebloans who experienced drought coincident with increased during late medieval (∼900–1250). Similarly, decreased may cultures via weakened monsoon Little Ice Age (∼1400–1750). Projections of 21st-century change yield cycle changes similar processes, suggesting strong likelihood as warms.