Climate Change Effects on the Suitability of an Agricultural Area to Maize Cultivation: Application of a New Hybrid Land Evaluation System

摘要: Abstract Climate change is likely to have a major impact on agricultural production in Mediterranean regions, due higher temperatures and lower water availability for irrigation. A Hybrid Land Evaluation System (HLES) proposed allowing comparison between plant demands the one hand estimated future soil regimes other. A storyline followed each species hybrid mapping unit area be studied, starting with step 1: evaluation of thermal conditions, by 2: traditional empirical land procedure identifying limiting features that are not covered crop simulation models (such as flooding, surface stones, salt). Step 3 applies quantitative Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model calculates associated productions, at 100%, 80%, 60% hypothetical irrigation availability. HLES was applied Destra Sele Italy, comparing two climates: “reference” (1961–1990) “future” (2021–2050), studying 11 maize hybrids showing future, 6 suffered severely 80% 7 could meet requirements 60%. allows proactive approach allocation issues provides data genetic modification studies terms defining hydrological conditions sites native plants areas where new introduced. presents options, explored close interaction users, rather than one-way judgments.