Short-term reliability evaluation using control variable based dagger sampling method

摘要: Most of the reliability theory and applications are in planning domain. When concepts applied operations or operational planning, computational burden algorithms becomes a bottleneck as speed execution critical. This paper presents an efficient control variable based dagger sampling technique for reducing effort Monte-Carlo evaluation composite systems. The proposed variance reduction method is unique combining offline calculations with online computation. A large number system states simulated to calculate their consequences stored. Short-term uses information on computed construct function. In short-term evaluation, outage probability each component much smaller compared long-term calculations. Dagger used reduce computation time under this condition. Test results RTS show improvement effectiveness convergence speed.