The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation
作者： Yoichi Kaya , Mitsutsune Yamaguchi , Keigo Akimoto
DOI: 10.1007/S11625-015-0339-Z
关键词:
摘要: Uncertainty of climate sensitivity is one the critical issues that may affect response strategies. Whereas equilibrium (ECS) was specified as 2–4.5 °C with best estimate 3 in 4th Assessment Report IPCC, it revised to 1.5–4.5 5th Report. The authors examined impact a difference ECS assuming 2.5 °C, instead °C. current pledges several countries including U.S., EU and China on emission reductions beyond 2020 are not track for 2 target an but compatible It critically important policymakers Paris know they position make decisions under large uncertainty ECS.
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