System dynamics model analysis of pathway to 4th generation district heating in Latvia

摘要: Abstract In the article, a possibility to introduce 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in Latvia is analyzed with system dynamic modeling. Three policy instruments were included into model: subsidies, instrument for risk reduction and efficiency increase, their impact on operation was analyzed. Six development scenarios are examined two of which supplemented transition heat network low-temperature regime at different share renewable energy (60%, 80%, 95%). The tariff used as main indicator determining pace structure technology change. model existing natural gas three technologies – biomass combustion equipment, solar collectors accumulation pumps. Results modeling shows that scenario, no used, reduce CO2 emissions 58.6% until 2030; but it possible achieve zero emission level, case political used.