Shifts in the suitable habitat available for brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) under short-term climate change scenarios.

摘要: The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE 0.78 0.97 respectively) two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5). An ensemble five strongly regularized machine learning techniques (generalized additive models, multilayer perceptron ensembles, random forests, support vector machines fuzzy rule base systems) used to model microhabitat (depth, velocity substrate) during summertime evaluate several flows River2D©. rate combined assessment infer bivariate duration curves (BHDCs) historical conditions using either weighted usable area (WUA) or Boolean-based suitable (SA). forecasts both jointly predicted significant reduction an increase (mean ca. -25% +4% respectively). converged modelled preferences; selected relatively high velocity, depth coarse substrate. However, developed presented significantly trimmed output range (max.: 0.38), thus its predictions banned from WUA-based analyses. BHDCs based WUA SA broadly matched, indicating number days less available (WUA SA) and/or higher (trout will endure impoverished environmental 82% days). Finally, our results suggested potential extirpation species study site short spans.