Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

摘要: This study demonstrates the spatial variation in hydrologic processes across Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by end of 21st century, ingesting FOREcasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) Land-use Change projections into a physics-based model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model is created for UMRB (440,000 km2), using National Landcover Database year 2001 climate data 1991–2010. Considering 1991–2010 as baseline reference period, FORE-SCE 2091 under three scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are separately assimilated calibrated model, whereas input kept same baseline. Modeling results suggest an increase 0.5% 3.5% average annual streamflow at basin outlet (Grafton, Illinois) during 2081–2100, respectively, A1B B1, would decrease 1.5%. Under “worst case” A2 scenario, 6% 133% increase, agricultural urban areas with 30% depletion forest grassland result 70% surface runoff, 20% soil moisture, 4% evapotranspiration certain parts basin. Conversion cropland, forest, or to perennial hay/pasture lower runoff 25% especially central region, persistent cover northern region cause up 7% evapotranspiration. ecosystem half likely become adverse, dictated composite water–energy balance indicator. Future land use change extents resultant responses found significantly different A1B, scenarios, which resonates need multi-scenario ensemble assessments towards characterizing probable future. shown here helps identify potential “hot spots,” giving ways adopt more effective policy alternatives regional level.