Learning to commit or avoid the base-rate error

摘要: When predicting an event, people neglect overall frequencies (base rates) of various possibilities. We have previously shown that this base-rate occurs not only with word problems, but also in a procedure repeated trials: sample cue followed by two choice options, one which the subject must choose, feedback regarding correctness choice. Perhaps error depends on people's histories matching physically similar items. In support suggestions, we begin showing is eliminated unrelated then show when relation between items again arbitrary, subjects already know, reappears. Finally teaching new arbitrary relations reintroduces later testing. These experiments demonstrate fundamental dependent learned relationships without interference from re-existing associations cues and predictions may be made more optimally.