作者: Iain Staffell
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摘要: Fuel cells could substantially decarbonise domestic energy production, but at what cost? It is known that these micro-CHP systems are expensive actual price data has been elusive. Economic realities constrain individuals’ decisions to purchase and national policies on climate change, so this lack of understanding delayed commercialisation government support. Models were therefore developed simulate the economic environmental benefits from operating fuel cell in UK homes, project current prices into near future. These models supplied with performance an extensive meta-review academic commercial demonstrations; showing for example efficiencies a third lower when operated people’s homes rather than laboratory. inputs combined consumption 259 houses give broad definition conditions UK. The techno-economic simulation model was validated against results literature Japanese field trials, then used estimate changes home four leading technologies shown offer negligible financial present. Energy bills would increase 30-60% due part low value exported electricity. Savings higher larger bills, significant variation between similar properties confirms simple trends cannot be identify ideal micro-CHP. feed-in tariff proposed by radically improve outcomes; as 10p paid per kWh electricity generation reward owners £600-750 annually. estimated today’s produce 360-450g CO\(_2\) generated reforming natural gas hydrogen on-site. Their carbon intensity 30-45% grid, enabling average annual emissions reductions 1-2.2 tonnes home. depend strongly displaced method, range around zero displacing high efficiency turbines up 5.5 if coal. From learning-by-doing, 1kW PEMFC have fallen 19.1-21.4% each doubling production volume. Prices projected fall £15,000 today £6,000 within 10±5 years, determined primarily speed scale deployment world-wide. A commercially viable £3,000 however expected two decades away, widely held targets under £1,000 kW argued unobtainable requirement balance plant auxiliary systems. Combining all findings, payback period 25-45 years 10p/kWh tariff. This system lifetimes after 5-10 cost reductions; however, without level support savings operation will unable major improvements technology or more favourable prices. £750-950 tonne mitigated. figure highly sensitive generation, reduce £175/T coal plants avoided. not among ‘low hanging fruit’ abatement technologies, although costs halve over next ten line reductions. Investment must considered long term strategy low-carbon production.