Combining multiple tools to provide realistic potential distributions for the mouflon in Sardinia: species distribution models, spatial pattern analysis and circuit theory

摘要: Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict potential species in ecology, biogeography, and conservation. However, the lack of consideration for many different aspects species’ ecology often result maps limited practical value. Yet wealth information that is available (especially larger vertebrates) could help improve these models. Here, considering mouflon ( Ovis aries ) Sardinia as a case study, we propose new integrated approach based on ecology. In particular, combined an SDM calibrated with ensemble modelling morphological spatial pattern analysis model structural connectivity. With this it was possible map at same time potentially suitable habitat patches (and particularly those being able host pregnant females) corridors connecting patches. Overall, while predicted 14.5% (3480 km 2 presence mouflon, our percentage areas dropped much lower more realistic 6.6% (1584 ). Our results have important consequences conservation management Sardinia.