Assessing habitat quality for conservation using an integrated occurrence-mortality model

摘要: Summary 1. Habitat suitability models are usually produced using species presence or habitat selection, without taking into account the demographic performance of population considered. These cannot distinguish between sink and source habitats, causing problems especially for with low reproductive rates high susceptibility to levels mortality as in case critically endangered Apennine brown bear Ursus arctos marsicanus . 2. We developed a spatial model based on (2544 locations) data (37 used proxies performance. integrated an occurrence mortality-risk Ecological Niche Factor Analysis final two-dimensional that can be attractive sink-like source-like habitat. 3. Our indicates traditional provide misleading management conservation indications, 43% area suitable is associated risk. Areas bears (highly elevated areas rich beech forests, far from roads, human density cultivated fields) still present, including outside currently occupied range. However, (associated pasture, extent mountain meadows, steepness, elevation, closeness secondary urban roads) present even inside protected areas. 4. Synthesis applications Identifying crucial prevent inappropriate effectively address issues: whereas existing habitats should preserved halt loss degradation, managed mitigate risks decrease their attractiveness. In particular, areaspecific interventions proactive actions (increased patrolling, road closure, activity management, threat monitoring, etc.) aimed at reducing human-caused critical bear.