Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government

摘要: Plotting the performance of a technology against money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into relative payoff investment competing technologies, as well providing some when and why technologies overtake others race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such S-curve perspective reveals surprising important implications both government industry. Using data on R&D technological improvement (in form cost reductions), we show that wind energy geothermal are poised become more economical than fossil fuels within relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests has been under-funded by national governments funding solar fuel might excessive given those technologies. & 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.