Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

摘要: Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, seasonal predictability. In response to this deficiency, present study focuses on projected responses enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) mean state atmosphere land surface; (2) oceanic terrestrial drivers sub-Saharan variability; (3) total predictability Africa, a region known its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis output from 23 Earth System Models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five late twentieth twenty-first centuries. It is that greatest warming across Africa will occur over Sahel, monsoon season become more persistent into summer autumn, short rains Horn (HOA) intensify, leaf area index increase HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. multivariate statistical approach, applied model order explore climate. The models indicate region’s variability dominated by drivers, with secondary contributions soil moisture very modest impacts vegetation. Overall, general consensus future projections indicates concerning diminished African based key predictors an elevated role surface (associated anomalies) compared regulating variability.