Predictive Assessment of Fish Health and Fish Kills in the Neuse River Estuary Using Elicited Expert Judgment

摘要: ABSTRACT Declining fish health and the occurrence of large kills are some more publicly meaningful indicators water quality in impaired Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina. It is generally believed that such problems caused by widespread depletion dissolved oxygen—an indirect result anthropogenic nutrient pollution. However, development scientific simulation models to predict how improvements oxygen conditions will improve reduce frequency has proven elusive. As a pragmatic solution this problem, expert opinion estuarine fisheries scientists possession relevant data experience was elicited. The relations between joint conditional probabilities were exploited translate quantities normally hard assess into can be drawn directly from experiential knowledge experts. A combined model constructed as an influence diagram, Monte Carlo ...