The Effect of Near-Term Policy Choices on Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Transformation Pathways

摘要: Abstract To successfully limit climate change, today’s greenhouse gas mitigation policies should encourage reductions that will continue for decades. History suggests, however, some policy reforms lead to societal changes persist over the long-term while others fade without effect. Current literature provides little guidance on how choices can shape emission reduction paths. address such questions, this paper introduces a new agent-based, game theoretic model designed compare near-term regarding alternative architectures influence trajectories. Drawing political science identifies characteristics of time, simulation first time integrates co-evolution an industry sector, its technology base, and shifting coalitions future stringency government’s policies—all as influenced by initial choice architecture. An exploratory modeling analysis represents deeply uncertain phenomena potential innovation behavior governments draws policy-relevant conclusions from model. The finds architecture carbon pricing may affect decarbonization rates significantly. In particular, are higher if program revenues returned firms in proportion their market share, thus, creating constituency continuing policy. More generally, framework considering transformation pathways within integrated assessment models.