Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S.

摘要: We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade and real income through rms' export investments in general equilibrium. quantify causes welfare eects China's boom toward U.S. following its 2001 WTO accession; reducing threat a war explains 22% growth to Reduced lowered prices, increasing consumers' by at least 0.8 percent, equivalent an 8 percentage point tari decrease. These ndings provide evidence large economic activity importance agreements it.