Precursor analysis and prediction of large-amplitude relativistic electron fluxes

摘要: [1] An analysis of large-amplitude relativistic electron fluxes, Je, is given using models that predict their appearance based on solar wind precursors. It has been noted flux bursts in the magnetosphere are associated with high-speed streams. This observation used to motivate several quantify association terms 2 × contingency tables. For each model, minimal cost structure for which model would be useful computed as a function large threshold values Je. The first crossing daily averaged velocity, VSW, tends precede fluxes. optimal ratio correct false alarms forecasts found this algorithm 18:4 corresponding amplitudes Je at L = 4.4 above Jc 103 particles/str·cm2·s (corresponding 110 total events). second allows jumps an event indicator and yields slight improvements forecast larger Jc. dependence shell also considered. shown there average VSW from below 600 km/sec sufficient condition fluxes one following three days. km/s not necessary condition, because ≃80% events were preceded by condition.