Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective
作者： A. W. P. Thomson
DOI: 10.1029/2000GL011908
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摘要: Decision Theory can be used as a tool for discussing the relative costs of complacency and false alarms with users space weather forecasts. We describe new metric value forecasts, derived from Theory. In particular we give equations level accuracy that forecast must exceed in order to useful specific customer. The technique is illustrated by simplified example forecasts global geomagnetic activity geophysical exploration power grid management British Isles.
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