Decision-theoretic limits on earthquake prediction

摘要: SUMMARY I apply Decision Theory to the question of how accurate earthquake predictions must be serve as a reliable basis for action. Even with optimistic estimates parameters involved, lower bound on required accuracy is extraordinarily demanding, being over 10 times higher than that current meteorological forecasts. Given abruptly self-organizing nature earthquakes, it extremely unlikely precursors can attain such levels accuracy. I therefore conclude prediction major earthquakes is, in any practical sense, impossible.