The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors

摘要: SUMMARY Full scientific evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors for prediction is a problem because independent testing difficult or impossible. To approach this difficulty, and to assess the current state art research, IASPEI has devised peer-review procedure precursor evaluation. The does not consider predictions impending earthquakes, but evaluates case histories past events according stated validation criteria, which are specified in terms guidelines concerning hypothesized physical model, data quality, anomaly definition, rules association with earthquake, statistical significance. So far, five have been placed on preliminary list significant precursors, although none satisfied criteria well enough ensure that their placement permanent. Exclusion from mean it useless, further work required if become convincing. main objectives producing establish consensus must satisfy be recognized as validated, find these criteria. Further nominations candidates requested by procedure.