When to Ignore Advice: Invasion Predictions and Decision Theory

摘要: Organisms generally become pests at a low rate. As consequence of this ‘base-rate probability’, the large majority organisms rejected in any random sample potential introductions would probably be harmless, despite fairly high accuracy some recently proposed risk assessment systems for exotic introductions. Here we distinguish between system's (the proportion group known pest species that correctly identified as pests) and reliability rate false positives negatives produced once base-rate is taken into account). We next adapt decision theory analysis earthquake prediction to explore when best advised ignore recommendations screening system In one scenario, show with an 85% better ignored, unless damage caused by introducing eight times or more not harmless organism potentially useful. Furthermore, because effect, certain situations it may efficient focus on identifying invaders from amongst already naturalized than importation stage.