Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature

摘要: Scenarios, roadmaps and similar foresight methods are used to cope with uncertainty in areas long planning horizons, such as energy policy, research into the future of hydrogen has been no exception. Such studies can play an important role development shared visions future: creating powerful expectations potential emerging technologies mobilising resources necessary for their realisation. This paper reviews futures literature, using a six-fold typology map state art scenario construction. The then explores embodied through 'answers' it provides questions about hydrogen. What drivers, barriers challenges facing economy? key technological building blocks required? In what kinds does become important? economy look like, how when evolve, achieve? literature describes diverse range possible futures, from decentralised systems based upon small-scale renewables, centralised reliant on nuclear or carbon-sequestration. There is broad consensus that emerges only slowly, if all under 'Business Usual' scenarios. Rapid transitions occur conditions strong governmental support combined with, result of, major 'discontinuities' shifts society's environmental values, 'game changing' breakthroughs, rapid increases oil price speed intensity climate change.