It is still possible to achieve the paris climate agreement: Regional, sectoral, and land-use pathways

摘要: It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) regional decarbonization targets for four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, industry—in 5-year steps 2050. use normative scenarios illustrate effects of efficiency measures renewable use, describe roles increased electrification final demand synthetic fuels, quantify resulting electricity load increases 72 sub-regions. Non-energy include phase-out net emissions from agriculture, forestry, other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, restoration scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt 2100. An estimate COVID-19 on included sensitivity analysis describes impacts if implementation delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce likelihood achieving 1.5 goal. The applies model network consisting system, power transport, land-use, climate models.