Radical Uncertainty, Dynamic Competition and a Model of the Business Cycle: The Implications of a Measure and an Explanation of What Is Supposed Non-Measurable and Non-Explainable

摘要: The influence of radical uncertainty and expectations on economic behaviour is indisputable, whether entrepreneurship, innovation, investment, or the that contributes to business cycle. It rather surprising, therefore, see widespread ambiguities in accounts this crucial aspect life and, indeed, human existence. In particular, frequent assumption ex hypothesis non-measurable non-explainable constitutes a major misunderstanding obstructs analysis growth development more generally, study dynamics. This essay first all underlines conceptual difference between expectations. then establishes possibility delineates method measuring true by means monthly EU tendency surveys. allows derivation from these surveys both better information than they at present provide, also some indicators are relevant mainly an evolutionary perspective. order obtain deeper understanding such procedures, applications have been carried out. A model dynamic competition cycle centred relation innovation specified tested using FIML estimator.