First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula

摘要: The first-order or initial agricultural impacts of climate change in the Iberian Peninsula were evaluated by linking crop simulation models to several high-resolution (RCMs). RCMs provided daily weather data for control, and A2 B2 IPCC scenarios. All used boundary conditions from atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) HadAM3 while two also bounded other AGCMs. analyses standardised control sources variation uncertainties that added process. Climatic on wheat maize derived scenario generated HadAM3. Some results scenarios are included comparisons together with using different conditions. Crop as impact yield was an indicator summarised effects quantify differentiate among regions. Comparison made through choice management options. RCM-crop combinations detected failures winter South under future scenarios, projected increases spring northern high altitude areas. Although differed RCMs, similar trends emerged relative yields some outputs compared favourably others European Re-Analysis (ERA-15), establishing feasibility direct RCM analysis. Uncertainties quantified standard deviation mean obtained all each location greatly between (wheat) summer (maize) seasons, being smaller latter.