Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds.

摘要: Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number studies have responded this challenge by using envelopes, modeling association between variables and distributions. However, it difficult quantify well actually match climate. Here, we use null models show that species–climate associations found envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, demonstrate distribution limits determined more northerly ranges. We conclude scientific change policies based on indiscriminate irrespective sensitivity may be misleading in need revision.