The Interpretation of DNA Evidence: A Case Study in Probabilities

摘要: This educational module on DNA evidence commissioned by a committee of the National Academies presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in case which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” testimony leading expert about probabilities associated with evidence. By embedding these legal materials background explanations, critical questions, short problems, supports self-study class discussions that can elucidate key principles scientific reasoning quantitative analysis help students understand conditional probabilities. The includes information exercises relating to following statistical skills: (1) sampling (defining relevant population, spotting sources bias uncertainty, interpreting confidence intervals); (2) modeling profile (testing assumptions sensitivity analysis); (3) probability theory (the concept mathematical probability, events such as match randomly selected individual, independent dependent events, transposed conditional, likelihood ratios for pairs hypotheses measure probative value matches other test results, Bayes’ rule deducing posterior from ratio prior probability).