Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland

摘要: When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe little known about current abundance Poland. Although different landscape plans central Poland exist, unclear what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four development would affect total carrying capacity population dynamics toad. To facilitate decision-making, first ranked according their capacity. We used software RAMAS GIS determine size location habitat patches landscape. estimated capacities were very similar each scenario, clear ranking was not possible. Only reforestation scenario showed a marked loss therefore simulated metapopulation with taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction dispersal resulting species abundance. In case, could clearly rank scenarios. identified road mortality adults key process governing separating renaturalisation highest due decreased mortality. Taken together our results suggest that infrastructure might be much more important than changes amount semi-natural river valley. gained insights by considering both structure form PVA. conclude consideration dynamic amphibian may indispensable