Expected minimum population size as a measure of threat

摘要: Risks of population decline are studied extensively in conservation biology, but difficult to estimate because they change abruptly over a relatively narrow range parameters. We propose that risks may be usefully summarized by the expected minimum size. This is smallest size occur within particular time period. Analytical solutions for obtained stochastic model exponential growth. In more complex models analyzed Monte Carlo simulation, determined recording each iteration and taking average these values. Whereas with changes parameter values, gradually. The results demonstrate provides better indication propensity than risk extinction (or some other small size), especially when small.