When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability

摘要: Recently Don Ludwig has shown that calculations of extinction probabilities based on currently available data are often meaningless due to the large uncertainty accompanying estimates. Here we address two questions posed by his findings. Can one ever calculate accurately? If so, how much would be necessary? Our analysis indicates reliable predictions long-term likely require unattainable amounts data. Analytic diffusion approximations indicate can made only for short-term time horizons (10% 20% as long period over which population been monitored). Simulation results unstructured and structured populations (three stage classes) agree with these calculations.